Bitwise CIO Sees Bitcoin at $1.3M by 2035 as Institutional Demand Grows

 

Aug 10, 2026 – Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has laid out a bold vision for Bitcoin's long-term trajectory: $1.3 million per coin by 2035.

The forecast comes from Bitwise's 2025 Capital Market Assumptions report, which projects a 28.3% compound annual growth rate for Bitcoin over the next decade. The math behind the prediction starts not with crypto but with gold. Hougan's case rests on a simple but staggering calculation: a 1% allocation from global institutions managing between $100 trillion and $200 trillion in assets could represent $1 trillion to $2 trillion in fresh capital entering the Bitcoin market.

"The first professional investors to allocate at scale will be financial advisers and family offices," Hougan said in an email interview with CoinDesk. "It's a process that will take 10+ years."

 

The Gold Comparison That Drives the Math

Hougan's $1.3 million Bitcoin price target by 2035 rests on Bitcoin taking a 25% share of an expanding store-of-value market.

Hougan's scenario assumes the store-of-value market continues expanding at roughly its historical pace. If that holds for another decade, and Bitcoin captures a quarter of the market, the math points to $1.3 million per coin.

"When people value bitcoin, they often talk about it as competing with gold for the 'store of value' market," Hougan explained. "They say something like: Gold is a $30 trillion asset. If bitcoin can take 50% of the market, each bitcoin will be worth $715,000."

 

The Institutional Math: $1 Trillion to $2 Trillion in Fresh Capital

Global institutions — including foundations, endowments, pension plans, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and central banks — control between $100 trillion and $200 trillion in assets.

A 1% allocation across that pool could represent $1 trillion to $2 trillion in capital directed toward Bitcoin. To put that in perspective, Bitcoin's total market capitalization currently sits well below $2 trillion.

"Retail investors have driven the cryptocurrency market from zero to a $2 trillion market cap," Hougan said. "Over the next decade, institutional capital will become the primary growth force."

 

The Shift Is Already Visible

The institutional rotation is already beginning, Hougan said.

Early evidence:

• 13F filings for spot Bitcoin ETFs show institutional interest growing
• Financial advisers and family offices are the first movers

"Financial advisers and family offices are the first professional investors to allocate at scale," Hougan said.

 

Why Strategy's Buying Edge Is Fading

Strategy remains the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder. However, Hougan believes it will no longer be the primary driver of Bitcoin demand.

Two advantages that made Strategy's buying machine work have weakened:

1. Stock premium compressed: Strategy's stock once traded at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings because it was one of the few public-market proxies for crypto exposure. Spot ETFs now offer a direct alternative, making that premium harder to sustain.
2. Debt capacity constrained: Hougan argues that Strategy's previous financing advantages have become harder to exploit at the same scale.

"The easy paths to accumulation have been exhausted," Hougan said. Strategy will continue buying Bitcoin, he added, but at a slower pace and more closely tied to the price cycle.

 

What This Means for Long-Term Investors

"For long-term investors, the key question is not about short-term price floors," Hougan said.

"The much better question is if the top is in."

Hougan's $1.3 million prediction is not a short-term call. It's a long-term bet on:

• Institutional adoption unfolding over the next decade
• Bitcoin taking a meaningful share of an expanding store-of-value market
• The $100 trillion to $200 trillion institutional pool gradually allocating to digital assets

"Institutions have most of the money in the world," Hougan said. "Crypto grew up in retail, which took it from $0 to $2 trillion. But if it wants to get from $2 trillion to $20 trillion, it's going to be institutional capital that leads the way."

 

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