By CoinAINews Editorial Team
Prediction markets may be moving toward a much bigger role in global trading than their current sports-heavy image suggests.
Bernstein now forecasts that annual prediction-market trading volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035, a dramatic increase from the roughly $410 billion the firm expects for 2026. The research firm also sees financial contracts tied to cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities eventually overtaking sports as the largest category of prediction-market activity.
The forecast marks a major change from Bernstein's earlier outlook. In April, the firm had projected that prediction markets could reach approximately $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030. Its new $10 trillion 2035 estimate is therefore substantially more ambitious.
Bernstein's $10 Trillion Prediction-Market Forecast
According to Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, prediction-market volume could rise from approximately $50 billion in 2025 to about $410 billion in 2026, before expanding toward $10 trillion annually by 2035.
The forecast implies extremely rapid growth over the period. Bernstein expects the industry to expand at roughly a 70% compound annual growth rate from its relatively small 2025 base.
That number needs some context. A prediction-market volume figure represents the value of contracts traded, not the amount of money operators would necessarily earn as revenue. Trading volume and revenue are very different measurements.
The $10 trillion figure is therefore best understood as Bernstein's estimate for annual trading activity if prediction markets successfully expand into a much wider range of financial and real-world contracts.
Crypto, Stocks and Commodities Could Overtake Sports
The most interesting part of the forecast may not be the $10 trillion headline itself.
It is the expected change in what people trade.
Bernstein estimates that financial-asset contracts—including crypto, equities and commodities—represented around 12% of prediction-market volume in 2025. By 2035, the firm expects that category to reach approximately 49% of total volume.
Sports, meanwhile, accounted for roughly 61% of volume in 2025. Bernstein expects sports' share to decline to about 38% by 2035 as financial contracts expand more rapidly.
That does not necessarily mean sports prediction markets would become smaller in absolute terms. Instead, the forecast assumes financial markets grow much faster and take a larger percentage of the overall market.
| Metric | Earlier/Current Estimate | 2035 Bernstein Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Annual prediction- market volume |
~$410B in 2026 | $10T |
| Financial assets share |
~12% in 2025 | ~49% |
| Sports share | ~61% in 2025 | ~38% |
Why Crypto Is Becoming Important to Prediction Markets
Crypto is one of the areas where the shift is already becoming visible.
Short-duration contracts can give traders considerably more opportunities to trade than traditional event markets. Instead of waiting weeks for an election or months for a major sporting event, participants can trade contracts tied to short-term movements in assets such as Bitcoin.
Bernstein points to this development as part of the reason financial contracts could become a much larger portion of prediction-market activity.
Data cited in recent reporting shows that crypto's share of Kalshi volume increased from less than 5% in January to roughly 20% in August 2026. Commodity activity has also expanded, although from a much smaller base.
The significance is not simply that crypto contracts are popular. It is that crypto markets operate continuously, giving prediction-market platforms a potentially large supply of events and price-related questions that can settle quickly.
Prediction Markets Could Move Beyond Simple Yes-or-No Bets
The traditional image of a prediction market is a simple question: Will an event happen or not?
That model is changing.
Bernstein expects prediction platforms to introduce contracts linked to corporate performance indicators, production numbers, deliveries, subscriber growth and other measurable outcomes.
Such products could allow traders to take positions on specific business metrics without necessarily buying or shorting the company's stock itself.
The firm also highlighted the expansion of perpetual futures from crypto into commodities and individual stocks.
If these products become widely adopted, prediction markets could begin to look less like specialized event-betting websites and more like another layer of financial-market infrastructure.
The $4.7 Trillion Financial-Contract Opportunity
Bernstein's long-term projection is based partly on the enormous size of the underlying financial markets.
The firm's analysis estimates the addressable market for financial assets such as crypto, equities and commodities at roughly $700 trillion in 2025, potentially reaching about $900 trillion by 2035.
Bernstein's model assumes prediction markets capture only around 0.5% of that broader market by 2035. Even that relatively small penetration rate would translate into approximately $4.7 trillion of annual financial-asset prediction-market volume.
That assumption is important because it shows where the $10 trillion forecast comes from. Bernstein is not simply assuming sports prediction markets become 20 times larger. The thesis depends on prediction markets expanding into financial assets and other measurable outcomes.
Kalshi and Polymarket Show Different Market Mixes
The current prediction-market landscape also illustrates why the industry may be difficult to define as a single category.
Kalshi has seen a substantial increase in financial-contract activity, including crypto and commodities. Recent reporting based on Bernstein's analysis put Kalshi's share of overall industry volume at approximately 60% through August 2026.
Polymarket has a different mix. Sports remained its largest category in 2026 through August, while political and crypto markets also represented significant portions of activity.
Those differences matter because prediction markets are not all following exactly the same business model or attracting exactly the same users.
Regulation Remains a Major Variable
The industry's growth is also facing regulatory uncertainty, particularly in the United States.
Prediction-market operators have increasingly offered contracts tied to sports and financial events, raising questions about where certain products fall between financial derivatives regulation and state gambling laws.
Reuters reported recently that legal disputes over sports contracts remain unresolved, with federal courts divided over aspects of federal versus state oversight.
Bernstein reportedly does not expect full regulatory clarity for U.S. sports prediction markets until at least 2027 or 2028.
For the $10 trillion forecast to materialize, regulatory access will be an important factor. A prediction-market industry expanding into financial contracts at global scale would require reliable market infrastructure, clear rules and participation from institutions as well as retail traders.
Why Prediction Markets Could Attract Institutional Traders
Institutional participation is another part of the long-term thesis.
Financial institutions are already exploring ways to integrate prediction-market data into existing trading infrastructure. Reuters has reported that established financial-market companies are becoming involved as the sector develops.
The attraction is partly about information.
A prediction-market price can provide a continuously updated market-based estimate of the probability of a defined event. A contract trading at 70 cents, for example, can be interpreted as a market-implied probability of roughly 70%, although that interpretation comes with important assumptions and is not the same as a guaranteed forecast.
As more traders participate, the resulting prices could become another data point for analysts, businesses and financial institutions.
What the $10 Trillion Forecast Does Not Mean
Bernstein's projection should not be interpreted as a guarantee that prediction markets will reach $10 trillion.
The forecast depends on several assumptions: continued user growth, new financial products, regulatory developments, institutional participation and the ability of platforms to create sufficient liquidity.
Competition could also change the market. Traditional exchanges, brokers, sportsbooks and technology companies could enter areas currently dominated by specialist prediction-market platforms.
There is also a difference between trading volume and economic value. A contract can be traded multiple times before it expires, meaning a large volume number does not represent an equivalent amount of unique capital entering the market.
Why the Forecast Matters for Crypto
For the crypto industry, Bernstein's projection is notable because it places digital assets inside a broader transformation of prediction-market trading.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can generate thousands of objectively measurable price and market events every day. That gives prediction platforms a potentially continuous source of short-duration contracts.
If crypto contracts continue gaining share while prediction markets expand into stocks and commodities, digital assets could become one component of a much larger financial-contract ecosystem.
That does not mean prediction markets will replace traditional exchanges or derivatives markets. Rather, the forecast suggests that a new category could develop alongside them.
What Happens Next?
The next few years will provide a better test of Bernstein's thesis.
Trading volume, new contract types, regulatory decisions and institutional adoption will show whether prediction markets can maintain their current growth rates after the industry's rapid expansion in 2026.
The most important question may be whether financial contracts can continue growing faster than sports markets.
If that happens, the industry could gradually shift from being primarily associated with sports and political events toward a broader market for continuously traded contracts on financial and real-world outcomes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Bernstein forecast for prediction markets in 2035?
Bernstein forecasts approximately $10 trillion in annual prediction-market trading volume by 2035, compared with an estimated $410 billion for 2026.
Will crypto overtake sports in prediction markets?
Bernstein's forecast groups crypto, equities and commodities together as financial assets. That combined category is projected to reach about 49% of volume by 2035, compared with approximately 38% for sports.
Why are crypto prediction markets growing?
Short-duration crypto contracts, including contracts linked to Bitcoin price movements, can generate frequent trading opportunities because crypto markets operate continuously. Bernstein identified this type of activity as one contributor to the industry's expansion in 2026.
Is the $10 trillion prediction-market forecast guaranteed?
No. It is Bernstein's long-term forecast and depends on assumptions involving regulation, product development, liquidity, user adoption and institutional participation.
What is the difference between prediction-market volume and revenue?
Trading volume measures the value of contracts traded, while revenue represents what an operator earns from fees and other sources. A $10 trillion volume forecast should therefore not be interpreted as $10 trillion of revenue for prediction-market companies.
Conclusion
Bernstein's new $10 trillion prediction-market forecast for 2035 represents a much broader vision of the industry than today's sports-heavy market.
The central idea is that prediction markets could evolve into continuously traded financial platforms where crypto, stocks, commodities and corporate metrics sit alongside sports and other event contracts.
Whether the industry reaches $10 trillion will depend on how quickly those products develop, how regulators treat them and whether traders continue moving beyond traditional event markets.
For crypto, the forecast is significant because digital assets are already becoming an important part of the short-duration contract market. If Bernstein's broader thesis proves correct, crypto could be one of the building blocks of a much larger prediction-market economy by 2035.
Sources: Bernstein research as reported by The Block, Reuters and Decrypt.
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