September 12, 2026 — The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) opened three previously unreported investigations into potential insider trading involving Polymarket prediction markets, according to government records obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request.

The investigations involve three sensitive areas: presidential pardon markets connected to former President Joe Biden, Polymarket contracts related to Iran, and Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings.

The disclosures provide new insight into how U.S. regulators are examining trading activity on prediction markets, where users can take positions on political, geopolitical, corporate and other real-world events.

Importantly, the existence of an investigation does not establish that a trader committed insider trading or that a particular transaction was illegal.

CFTC Investigated Polymarket Biden Pardon Markets

According to documents reviewed by WIRED, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig approved an order in early May 2026 allowing the agency’s enforcement division to open a private investigation into potential insider trading involving Polymarket event contracts related to pardons issued by former President Joe Biden.

The investigation order did not identify the specific trades or individuals under suspicion. However, it came after reporting about a Polymarket trader who reportedly made more than $300,000 on pardon-related markets during the final days of the Biden administration.

The trader correctly positioned on markets involving preemptive pardons for several prominent political figures, according to reporting cited by WIRED.

The timing of the CFTC investigation attracted attention, although the publicly disclosed documents do not establish that the trader mentioned in earlier reporting was the specific target of the agency’s investigation.

Iran-Related Polymarket Trades Also Drew CFTC Scrutiny

At the end of May 2026, Selig approved another investigation concerning Iran event contracts traded on Polymarket.

The investigation documents do not provide detailed information about the individual accounts or transactions under examination. According to WIRED, the investigation came about two weeks after a 60 Minutes report highlighted a network of Polymarket accounts that had reportedly made approximately $2.4 million from Iran-related trades while recording a roughly 98% win rate.

The unusually high reported performance raised questions about whether some traders could have possessed information that was not publicly available. However, profitability or a high win rate by itself does not prove insider trading.

Third Investigation Focused on Google’s 2025 Year in Search Markets

The third previously unreported CFTC investigation was approved in July 2026 and focused on suspected insider trading involving Google-themed Polymarket contracts.

The contracts were tied to Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings. Google officially published its 2025 Year in Search results on December 4, 2025, several months before the CFTC authorized its later investigation into additional individuals.

The July investigation is separate from the CFTC’s already-public enforcement case against former Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo.

What Happened in the Michele Spagnuolo Case?

On May 27, 2026, the CFTC announced a complaint against Spagnuolo, alleging that he used sensitive, nonpublic information about Google’s official 2025 Year in Search results to trade on Polymarket.

According to the CFTC, Spagnuolo traded at least 23 Year in Search-related contracts using a Polymarket account. The regulator alleges that he generated approximately $1.2 million in profits from those trades.

The contracts included markets concerning categories such as the most searched people, actors, passings and television shows of 2025. CFTC court documents state that Polymarket began listing some of these contracts in October 2025, before Google publicly released its Year in Search results.

The CFTC is seeking restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction, according to its complaint.

Spagnuolo Also Faces Federal Criminal Charges

The Google case also has a criminal component.

On May 27, 2026, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York announced the unsealing of a criminal complaint against Spagnuolo. Prosecutors charged him with one count involving the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud, and one count of money laundering.

Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Italian citizen residing in Switzerland, was presented that day before U.S. Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn in the Southern District of New York, according to the Justice Department.

Prosecutors allege that he used confidential Google business information to make profitable Polymarket trades and subsequently took steps to conceal the source of the proceeds.

The Justice Department emphasized that the allegations in the criminal complaint should be treated as allegations unless and until proven in court.

What Does “Material Nonpublic Information” Mean?

Material nonpublic information generally refers to information that is not available to the public and that a reasonable investor or trader could consider important when making a financial decision.

In prediction markets, such information could potentially include advance knowledge of a government decision, corporate announcement, confidential ranking or another event outcome that has not yet been made public.

The distinction matters because prediction markets are built around information. A trader who independently analyzes public information is fundamentally different from someone who allegedly uses confidential information obtained through an employer or official position.

Why the CFTC’s Polymarket Investigations Matter

The three investigations cover very different categories of information: presidential decisions, geopolitical events and corporate search data.

Together, they highlight a growing regulatory question surrounding prediction markets: where should regulators draw the line between legitimate information-based trading and trading based on confidential information?

The issue has become increasingly important as prediction markets have expanded beyond elections into areas such as geopolitics, corporate events, economic data and other real-world outcomes.

The CFTC has already brought multiple enforcement actions involving alleged misuse of nonpublic information on prediction markets, demonstrating that the agency views market integrity as a significant regulatory issue.

Another CFTC Prediction-Market Insider-Trading Case: Gabriel Perez

The latest developments also follow a separate CFTC case involving Gabriel Perez.

On August 28, 2026, the CFTC announced that Perez agreed to pay a total of $172,539.02 in disgorgement and civil monetary penalties after the agency found that he misappropriated material, nonpublic information obtained through his federal government employment to trade presidential mention-market contracts.

According to the CFTC, Perez worked as a White House teleprompter operator and had access to presidential speeches before they were delivered. The agency said he used that information to trade prediction-market contracts concerning words or phrases the President might use during speeches.

Under the order, Perez must disgorge $107,539.02, pay a $65,000 civil monetary penalty, cease and desist from further violations and comply with a three-year trading ban.

What Has Polymarket Said?

Polymarket has not commented on the specific investigations. However, according to WIRED, Olivia Chalos, the company’s deputy chief legal officer, said Polymarket does not comment on specific investigations but regularly refers matters to law enforcement and supports ongoing investigations as part of its commitment to protecting market integrity.

This distinction is important because the newly disclosed CFTC investigations concern suspected trading activity. They do not, by themselves, establish that Polymarket or any individual trader violated the law.

Does an Investigation Mean the Traders Broke the Law?

No.

An investigation is a regulatory process used to determine whether potential violations occurred. It is not a final finding of liability or criminal guilt.

For the Biden pardon and Iran-related investigations, the publicly disclosed documents provide limited information about the specific traders or transactions being examined.

The Google matter is further along because the CFTC and federal prosecutors have already brought cases against Spagnuolo. Even there, however, the criminal allegations remain subject to the judicial process.

What Happens Next?

The CFTC investigations could eventually result in enforcement actions if the agency determines that specific traders violated the Commodity Exchange Act or related regulations.

Additional information could also emerge about the accounts, transactions and information allegedly available to traders before the relevant events became public.

For now, the available records establish that the CFTC authorized investigations into Polymarket activity involving Biden pardons, Iran event contracts and Google’s 2025 Year in Search markets. They do not establish that every trader involved in those markets engaged in illegal insider trading.

Bottom Line

The CFTC has opened at least three previously undisclosed investigations into potential insider trading involving Polymarket markets, according to records obtained by WIRED.

The investigations cover former President Joe Biden’s pardon markets, Iran-related event contracts and Google’s 2025 Year in Search markets. The Biden investigation was authorized in May 2026, the Iran investigation followed later that month, and the Google-related investigation was approved in July 2026.

The disclosures come as U.S. regulators increasingly scrutinize prediction markets for possible fraud, manipulation and misuse of confidential information.

For Polymarket and the wider prediction-market industry, these investigations could become an important test of how traditional market-integrity rules apply to event contracts tied to political, geopolitical and corporate developments.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the CFTC investigate Polymarket for insider trading?

Yes. Records obtained by WIRED show that the CFTC authorized at least three previously unreported investigations involving Polymarket markets tied to Biden pardons, Iran-related events and Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings.

Was insider trading proven in all three Polymarket investigations?

No. The disclosed investigations concern potential or suspected insider trading. Their existence does not establish that a specific trader violated the law.

When did the CFTC investigate the Biden pardon markets?

The CFTC authorized the Biden pardon investigation in early May 2026, according to documents obtained by WIRED.

When did the CFTC investigate Iran-related Polymarket trades?

The CFTC authorized an investigation into Iran event contracts at the end of May 2026, according to the documents reviewed by WIRED.

What was the Google Polymarket investigation about?

The July 2026 investigation focused on additional individuals who may have engaged in insider trading involving Polymarket contracts tied to Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings.

What happened to Michele Spagnuolo?

Federal prosecutors charged Spagnuolo with alleged violations involving the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud and money laundering. The Justice Department says he was presented before a federal magistrate judge on May 27, 2026. The allegations have not been established as criminal convictions.

How much did Spagnuolo allegedly make?

The CFTC alleges that Spagnuolo generated approximately $1.2 million in profits from Polymarket trades based on confidential Google information.

What did Polymarket say?

Polymarket’s deputy chief legal officer told WIRED that the company does not comment on specific investigations but regularly refers matters to law enforcement and supports ongoing investigations.

Sources

Editorial note: This article distinguishes between regulatory investigations, allegations and established findings. An investigation or criminal complaint does not constitute a final determination of guilt or liability.

CFTC Opens Three Previously Unreported Polymarket Insider-Trading Investigations Into Biden Pardons, Iran and Google